Spot/forward/long-term prices, current and benchmark TC/RC, hedge ratios, NPV volatility.
| Metal | Spot | 3-mo Fwd | 12-mo Fwd | LT Consensus | Unit | Spot vs LT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | $4.20 | $4.15 | $4.00 | $3.75 | $/lb | +12% |
| Zinc | $1.30 | $1.28 | $1.20 | $1.15 | $/lb | +13% |
| Gold | $2,350 | $2,340 | $2,300 | $1,800 | $/oz | +31% |
| Silver | $30.00 | $29.50 | $28.00 | $22.00 | $/oz | +36% |
| Charge | Current Spot | Annual Benchmark | LT Average | Unit | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cu TC | $80 | $80 | $75 | $/dmt | Stable |
| Cu RC | $0.08 | $0.08 | $0.07 | $/lb | Stable |
| Zn TC | $220 | $220 | $200 | $/dmt | Rising |
| Au RC | $5.00 | $5.00 | $4.50 | $/oz | Stable |
| Ag RC | $0.50 | $0.50 | $0.40 | $/oz | Stable |
| Ocean Freight | $45 | $45 | $40 | $/wmt | Softening |
| Price Move | Unhedged NP | Hedged NP | Hedge Benefit |
|---|---|---|---|
| -20% | $379M | $417M | +$38M |
| -10% | $427M | $446M | +$19M |
| Base | $474M | $474M | - |
| +10% | $521M | $502M | $-19M |
| +20% | $569M | $531M | $-38M |
Cu (40% hedged): Copper has the highest NP sensitivity ($35M/10%). Hedge 40% to protect downside while maintaining upside. Forward curve in mild backwardation = favorable lock-in.
Zn (30% hedged): Zn concentrate has high TC exposure ($220/dmt). Hedging 30% creates a margin floor. Forward contango means locking in lower prices = only hedge near-term quarters.
Au (20% hedged): Gold provides Cu conc credits. Low hedge ratio preserves upside exposure. Only hedge if gold backwardation is steep.
Overall: Blended hedge reduces NPV volatility from $190M range to $114M range (-40% vol). Margin floor at $380M NP even in -20% price scenario.