NPV Sensitivity Curves

Drag sliders to explore NPV across cut-off, discount rate, and production rate.

Scenario Controls

Adjust below, then Run|Pit:VC: $43.1/t+ Sust $8.0/t = $51.0/t|Sust:$M/yr

Cut-Off NSR$50/t

$10Marg $30Full $37Inv $57$200

Discount Rate8%

Production Rate8,000 t/d

NPV

$4,016M

Life

15.8yr

Ore

41.7Mt

Ann NP

$457M

Optimal

$90/t

NPV vs Cut-Off Grade

$4543M$3638M$2732M

$20

$40

$60

$80

$90

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

Peak: $90/t = $4543M

NPV vs Discount Rate

$6133M$0

$4016M

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

NPV vs Production Rate

$5213M$0

$4016M

10k

11k

12k

13k

14k

15k

Monte Carlo NPV Simulation (1,000 runs)

Inputs varied: Rate +/-15%, Cut-off +/-30%, DR +/-20%, Opex +/-20%. Shows probability distribution of NPV outcomes.

P10 (Downside)

$3332M

P50 (Base)

$3876M

P90 (Upside)

$4435M

Mean

$3881M

Prob NPV>0

100%

117590

P10

P50

P90

$2636M$3921M$5206M

Below P50Around P50Above P50100% chance of positive NPV

Risk Factors Modeled

Rate
+/-20%

Grade
+/-15%

DR
+/-20%

Opex
+/-25%

Availability
88-100%

Dilution
0-5%

STRONG GO

Confidence: 100% probability of positive NPV. High confidence — project robust under most scenarios.

Downside risk: P10 = $3332M. Even the downside case is positive — strong project.

Upside potential: P90 = $4435M vs base $3876M (+559M upside). Upside exceeds downside — asymmetric risk favours proceeding.

Key decision: Proceed with 8,000 t/d at $50/t cut-off. NPV range $3332M to $4435M.

NPV SENSITIVITY CURVES - MONTE CARLO SIMULATION